Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a90…ab9d other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$174 (+3%) realized +$179 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$131
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$169
politics 24% +$338
tech 20% −$688
world 19% +$358
sports 5% +$30
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +46.2% +32.3% 75% 75% +36.8%
≤30d 4 +46.2% +32.3% 75% 75% +36.8%
≤90d 5 +74.4% +57.8% 80% 80% +72.3%
all 32 +6.5% -3.7% 50% 47% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 47% -6.7%
10% -12.9% 38% -15.6%
15% -21.3% 34% -23.7%
20% -29.0% 25% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$100 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage581d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 38¢ $137 $132 −$5 (-4%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Norway to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 23 $29 +$38 +129%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $79 +$68 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 14 $104 +$194 +187%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025? Mar 13 $668 +$7 +1%
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? Jan 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? Jan 26 $327 +$384 +117%
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy? Jan 26 $727 −$705 -97%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 10 $124 +$120 +97%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 10 $513 −$31 -6%
Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? Jan 07 $250 +$37 +15%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 02 $90 −$90 -100%
Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? Dec 29 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Dec 28 $100 −$10 -10%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? Dec 21 $346 +$131 +38%
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Dec 18 $310 +$141 +46%
Sánchez resigns as PM of Spain before March? Dec 17 $91 +$14 +15%
Trudeau resigns by Friday? Dec 16 $50 +$10 +20%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 11 $30 −$12 -38%
Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? Dec 11 $243 −$27 -11%
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? Dec 08 $137 +$61 +44%
Pantoja vs. Asakura Dec 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? Dec 08 $1,200 +$283 +24%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Nov 21 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? Nov 20 $27 +$90 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $31 13m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $139 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Norway to score first vs. Senegal? BUY 43¢ $29 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $47 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $79 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL No 84¢ $298 40d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 28¢ $104 42d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 412d
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? BUY Yes 33¢ $200 412d
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $675 467d
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $668 509d
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 511d
Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? BUY Yes 46¢ $327 524d
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $245 529d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? SELL Yes 57¢ $482 529d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY Yes 61¢ $513 529d
Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? SELL No 100¢ $287 532d
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? BUY Yes $20 537d
Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? BUY No 87¢ $250 537d
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 541d
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? SELL Yes 22¢ $90 541d
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 542d
Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 543d
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 543d
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 547d
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? BUY Yes 73¢ $346 550d
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? SELL Yes 50¢ $269 551d
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 551d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.86 · official $161.86 (match) · 103 history records