trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +46.2% | +32.3% | 75% | 75% | +36.8% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +46.2% | +32.3% | 75% | 75% | +36.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +74.4% | +57.8% | 80% | 80% | +72.3% |
| all | 32 | +6.5% | -3.7% | 50% | 47% | -6.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.7% | 47% | -6.7% |
| 10% | -12.9% | 38% | -15.6% |
| 15% | -21.3% | 34% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -29.0% | 25% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: England (-2.5) | England | 40¢ | 38¢ | $137 | $132 | −$5 (-4%) |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Norway to score first vs. Senegal? | Jun 23 | $29 | +$38 | +129% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $47 | −$46 | -98% |
| Spread: Brazil (-2.5) | Jun 20 | $79 | +$68 | +86% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $101 | +$71 | +70% |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | May 14 | $104 | +$194 | +187% |
| Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? | May 07 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? | May 07 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025? | Mar 13 | $668 | +$7 | +1% |
| DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? | Jan 28 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open? | Jan 26 | $327 | +$384 | +117% |
| Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy? | Jan 26 | $727 | −$705 | -97% |
| Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? | Jan 10 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | Jan 10 | $124 | +$120 | +97% |
| TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Jan 10 | $513 | −$31 | -6% |
| Cybertruck explosion perp charged by Wednesday? | Jan 07 | $250 | +$37 | +15% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Jan 04 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Jan 02 | $90 | −$90 | -100% |
| Azerbaijan blames Russia for downing plane? | Dec 29 | $100 | +$150 | +150% |
| Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? | Dec 28 | $100 | −$10 | -10% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? | Dec 22 | $77 | −$77 | -100% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the Champions Chess Tour Finals? | Dec 21 | $346 | +$131 | +38% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during December FOMC Press Conference? | Dec 18 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Dec 18 | $310 | +$141 | +46% |
| Sánchez resigns as PM of Spain before March? | Dec 17 | $91 | +$14 | +15% |
| Trudeau resigns by Friday? | Dec 16 | $50 | +$10 | +20% |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? | Dec 11 | $30 | −$12 | -38% |
| Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? | Dec 11 | $243 | −$27 | -11% |
| Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December? | Dec 08 | $137 | +$61 | +44% |
| Pantoja vs. Asakura | Dec 08 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? | Dec 08 | $1,200 | +$283 | +24% |
| Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? | Nov 21 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? | Nov 20 | $27 | +$90 | +335% |