Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a8e…9bff other 118 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$5
politics 17% −$6
sports 6% +$7
economics 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.1% -3.1% 25% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 13 +2.2% -7.6% 15% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 113 -1.5% -10.9% 9% 7% -9.5%
all 116 -1.5% -10.8% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 7% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 6% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage93d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $169 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $18 +$5 +29%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $97 +$1 +1%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $809 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $267 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $262 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $257 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $281 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $278 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $259 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $448 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 01 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $277 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $277 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $275 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $258 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $46 24h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $46 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 28h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $169 35h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 44h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 11d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 26d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 26d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $97 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.20 · official $223.20 (match) · 340 history records