Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3a8e…5651 crypto 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$8 (+21%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%16W / 12L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$11
world 16% +$4
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +45.5% +31.7% 54% 54% +28.5%
≤30d 24 +45.5% +31.7% 54% 54% +28.5%
≤90d 24 +45.5% +31.7% 54% 54% +28.5%
all 28 +39.3% +26.0% 57% 50% +24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.0% 50% +24.5%
10% +14.0% 46% +12.6%
15% +3.0% 39% +1.7%
20% -7.1% 36% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses16 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +383%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $1 $0 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $1 +$1 +86%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records