Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a8a…de4c sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+11%) realized +$119 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$44
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$108
other 24% −$46
crypto 3% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +13.7% +2.8% 54% 54% -0.5%
≤30d 51 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 51% -0.7%
≤90d 51 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 51% -0.7%
all 51 +4.4% -5.5% 51% 51% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 51% -0.7%
10% -14.6% 51% -10.2%
15% -22.8% 47% -18.8%
20% -30.4% 43% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage14d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$5 -48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$8 +82%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +52%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$10 +190%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$17 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$9 +22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$11 +72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$16 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 58¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $10 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $18 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $10 19h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 42h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 92¢ $15 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.22 · official $178.22 (match) · 127 history records