Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a89…a4d6 sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,253 (-1%) realized −$1,309 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%183W / 215L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days+$48
14 days+$13
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$1,420
other 23% +$501
finance 22% +$135
world 18% −$530
politics 4% −$53
tech 1% +$102
crypto 1% −$80
culture 0% −$22
economics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.6% -10.1% 53% 50% -7.5%
≤30d 151 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 38% -11.7%
≤90d 247 -10.9% -19.4% 44% 34% -11.5%
all 398 -10.0% -18.6% 46% 36% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 36% -11.0%
10% -26.4% 30% -19.5%
15% -33.5% 26% -27.3%
20% -40.0% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$45 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses183 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions2
Markets (closed)398 / 408
History coverage581d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 19¢ $18 $69 +$51 (+282%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 22¢ 44¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+102%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$33 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$37 -37%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 +$23 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$13 -42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $43 +$40 +93%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $37 +$16 +43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$43 +129%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 +$24 +40%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $28 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $66 +$43 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 +$29 +31%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$13 -85%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$44 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$30 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $51 −$27 -53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$43 -71%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $31 +$7 +23%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$8 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $92 +$46 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $124 +$39 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$8 +31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$10 -44%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 −$19 -61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 +$41 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$38 +74%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$12 -24%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$23 +74%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$31 +151%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $121 −$24 -20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$67 -90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$31 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$21 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $51 −$11 -21%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 −$12 -41%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$5 -47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$24 +47%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $800 +$96 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$47 +227%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $20 +$60 +292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 22¢ $5 38m
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 42¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 30¢ $68 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 27¢ $64 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Oxuji Esports 0¢ $1 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 13¢ $13 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 24¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 35¢ $42 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $69 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 20¢ $18 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $32 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $82 26h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $43 28h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 60¢ $52 32h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 51¢ $20 32h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $16 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $34 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $84 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $60 47h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 65¢ $32 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 56¢ $28 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 48¢ $34 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 14¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.89 · official $76.17 · 1718 history records