Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a89…de7d sports 64 markets active 16h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-40%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate56%36W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$78
crypto 39% −$5
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -18.8% -26.6% 58% 34% -47.8%
≤30d 64 -18.2% -26.0% 56% 34% -47.7%
≤90d 64 -18.2% -26.0% 56% 34% -47.7%
all 64 -18.2% -26.0% 56% 34% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 34% -47.7%
10% -33.1% 17% -52.7%
15% -39.6% 9% -57.3%
20% -45.5% 6% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses36 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1 +$1 +61%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $1 $0 -46%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $4 $0 -5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $2 −$1 -53%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 15h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 15h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 32¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 41¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $6 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $6 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 78¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 86¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $1 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 46¢ $1 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 37¢ $1 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 49¢ $1 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 35¢ $1 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 45¢ $1 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 89¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 84¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $1 5d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 84¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records