Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a88…5f6a other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 26% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$9
economics 5% −$8
crypto 4% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.7% -10.2% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $307 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $323 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $323 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $69 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $399 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $255 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $489 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $428 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $353 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $131 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $467 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $460 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $441 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 4h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 10h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 23h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 28h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 30h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 34h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 39h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 41h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 43h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 44h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 45h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 47h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1374 history records