Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3A 0x3a86…cc01 sports 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,135 (-2%) realized −$5,135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%70W / 110L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,310per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$3,100est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$17,481
politics 0% −$10
world 0% +$123
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -25.5% -32.6% 37% 35% -24.8%
≤30d 178 -3.7% -12.9% 39% 38% -16.5%
≤90d 178 -3.7% -12.9% 39% 38% -16.5%
all 180 -3.7% -12.9% 39% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 38% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 33% -24.5%
15% -28.8% 26% -31.8%
20% -35.8% 22% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,718) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,043 vs −$822 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses70 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$3,100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage117d
Avg bet$1,310
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $926 +$241 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,078 +$533 +26%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,734 +$3,397 +72%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,818 +$1,043 +27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $113 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,406 −$1,379 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,108 −$1,107 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,881 −$1,861 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $686 +$1,552 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,226 +$250 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $3,911 +$1,060 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,669 −$1,882 -40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $799 −$789 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $310 −$303 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $456 +$1,770 +388%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $148 −$144 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $294 −$288 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,563 +$910 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $515 −$503 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,662 −$1,654 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $881 −$880 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $660 −$652 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $526 −$526 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $903 −$903 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $633 +$908 +143%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,087 −$1,069 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,495 −$1,483 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,281 +$1,954 +153%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,175 +$728 +62%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $420 −$412 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,410 −$2,323 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $825 −$810 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,246 −$2,234 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,707 −$1,682 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $717 +$92 +13%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $800 −$486 -61%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $244 −$127 -52%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $530 +$579 +109%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $836 −$29 -4%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $294 −$294 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $437 +$654 +150%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,295 −$110 -8%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $71 +$285 +400%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $649 +$319 +49%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,072 +$212 +20%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $741 −$734 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1,166 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $2,611 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $273 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $70 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 78¢ $201 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $655 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $4 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 79¢ $164 10h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $8,132 10h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $34 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $139 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $296 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $48 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $18 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $457 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $80 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $160 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $5 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $5 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 80¢ $253 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1595 history records