Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3A 0x3a86…dea8 politics 226 markets active 26d ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (243 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$139,666 (-351%) realized −$139,666 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +215% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +142% what you keep after slip
Net edge+142%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%119W / 107L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day243.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% +$20,781
other 27% +$16,463
world 15% +$3,498
tech 4% +$10,336
economics 3% +$2,523
weather 3% +$327
sports 1% +$307
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (243 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+184.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 37 +57.8% +42.8% 22% 16% +179.4%
≤90d 226 +214.9% +184.9% 53% 39% +98.3%
all 226 +214.9% +184.9% 53% 39% +98.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover243.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +184.9% 39% +98.3%
10% ← realistic here +157.6% 36% +79.3%
15% +132.7% 34% +62.0%
20% +109.9% 32% +46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +136% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +215% · $-wt +136% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +287% → late +143% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$482 vs −$29 · ×16.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.19 per $1 lost it wins $18.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139,666
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses119 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$176
Trades / day243.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $10 $0 -2%
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? May 30 $360 +$2,949 +818%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House May 30 $468 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 May 30 $486 +$143 +29%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $78 +$29 +38%
Will Islam Makhachev remain #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings? May 28 $6 −$2 -41%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -5%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $2 $0 +7%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 28 $3 −$1 -23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $2 −$1 -22%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A May 28 $2 $0 -7%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $2 $0 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $3 $0 -10%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 28 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -14%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -9%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $2 +$43 +1895%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 -13%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $2 $0 -12%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 28 $3 $0 -10%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? May 28 $3 $0 -13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 28 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 28 $2 −$1 -54%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 −$2 -58%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $3 +$1 +36%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 28 $3 −$1 -59%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? May 28 $1 −$1 -52%
2026 Balance of Power: Other May 28 $53 +$55 +105%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia advance to the second May 27 $2 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Table" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experien May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House May 23 $1,265 +$4,280 +338%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on May 23 $0 $0 -3%
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? May 23 $512 −$67 -13%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an May 23 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 May 23 $757 −$96 -13%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3% May 23 $235 −$5 -2%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? May 23 $895 −$441 -49%
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? May 23 $35 −$3 -7%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? May 23 $427 −$148 -35%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? May 23 $420 +$58 +14%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2 May 23 $127 −$88 -70%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats May 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027? May 23 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 25d
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 25d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL No 98¢ $11 25d
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 15¢ $18 25d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 25d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 26d
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records