Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a80…2afd crypto 319 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$311 (-9%) realized −$311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate59%188W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$430
14 days−$357
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$485
other 6% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +21.3% +9.7% 28% 26% -35.1%
≤30d 319 -12.7% -21.0% 59% 15% -24.3%
≤90d 319 -12.7% -21.0% 59% 15% -24.3%
all 319 -12.7% -21.0% 59% 15% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 15% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 13% -31.5%
15% -35.5% 12% -38.1%
20% -41.8% 11% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses188 / 131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 319
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (119 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$21 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$7 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$39 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$29 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$24 +746%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $156 +$47 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $78 −$74 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $265 −$251 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$409 +842%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $96 +$55 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$24 +756%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$19 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$43 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$9 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $43 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $66 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $90 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $58 +$59 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $73 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $69 −$65 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $95 −$22 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1015 history records