Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:57:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a76…912a crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$650 (+17%) realized +$650 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate53%27W / 24L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$481
other 16% +$166
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +50.7% +36.4% 50% 32% +8.4%
all 51 +15.4% +4.5% 53% 24% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 24% +3.8%
10% -5.5% 18% -6.2%
15% -14.7% 16% -15.2%
20% -23.0% 14% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$21 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$650
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses27 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage235d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 22 $91 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 14 $83 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 14 $54 +$146 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 14 $102 +$197 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 26 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 26 $105 +$95 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 26 $125 +$75 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 25 $9 +$291 +3233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 25 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 24 $103 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 24 $53 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 24 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 24 $183 −$22 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 24 $187 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 24 $153 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 24 $152 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5AM ET Mar 24 $83 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 24 $47 +$68 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 24 $14 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $72 +$10 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 17? Mar 24 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 12-18? Mar 15 $71 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 08 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 08 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 08 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 01 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 04 $68 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 24 $275 +$162 +59%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Nov 07 $275 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.90 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $275 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $91 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $28 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $34 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $20 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $22 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.76 · official $131.76 (match) · 251 history records