Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a75…c9ae other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%27W / 28L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$1
world 38% −$1
politics 7% +$3
crypto 6% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.0%
all 55 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 5% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 5% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses27 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage444d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $35 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $34 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $4 +$5 +124%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $1 $0 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on June 3? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 08 $4 +$2 +49%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? May 06 $19 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 07 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $5 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $32 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $23 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $15 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 85¢ $3 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 85¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 90¢ $35 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $38 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.40 · official $26.40 (match) · 189 history records