Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a73…0d18 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$9
other 25% $0
politics 7% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 12% -7.7%
≤30d 17 +1.8% -7.9% 47% 6% -8.3%
≤90d 17 +1.8% -7.9% 47% 6% -8.3%
all 53 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -8.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.65 per $1 lost it wins $6.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage466d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $105 +$3 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 +$3 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 +$2 +7%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 +$1 +9%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 03 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 02 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $2 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $39 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $39 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 17h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records