Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

3A 0x3a70…348f other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$490 (-62%) realized −$484 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip

Net edge-76%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$158per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 97d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-76.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-47.1%	-52.1%	0%	0%	-52.1%
≤90d	1	-47.1%	-52.1%	0%	0%	-52.1%
all	2	-73.6%	-76.1%	0%	0%	-96.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-76.1%	0%	-96.4%
10%	-78.4%	0%	-96.7%
15%	-80.5%	0%	-97.0%
20%	-82.4%	0%	-97.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -47% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -74% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$245 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$204

Realized−$484

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage97d

Avg bet$158

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$100	$88	−$12 (-12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$10	$17	+$7 (+67%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$103	−$18	-18%
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Mar 19	$472	−$472	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	3¢	$79	7d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	7d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$69	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$12	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$8	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$0	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	3¢	$100	96d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	3¢	$150	97d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	3¢	$100	97d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY Yes	3¢	$22	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.71 · official $203.71 (match) · 17 history records