Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a6e…9bc5 sports 896 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,524 (-4%) realized −$1,524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%555W / 341L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$69
14 days−$210
30 days−$785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$995
crypto 30% −$693
other 17% −$757
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -6.7% -15.6% 74% 58% -20.2%
≤30d 513 -5.4% -14.4% 60% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 896 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 54% -15.5%
all 896 -4.9% -14.0% 62% 54% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 54% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 41% -23.6%
15% -29.7% 27% -31.0%
20% -36.6% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$32 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses555 / 341
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)896 / 896
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 896 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 19m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 30m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 51m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 51m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records