Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a67…12b3 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$7
sports 15% +$31
crypto 4% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 65% -7.3%
≤30d 20 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 65% -7.3%
≤90d 20 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 65% -7.3%
all 20 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 65% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 65% -7.3%
10% -11.5% 55% -16.2%
15% -20.1% 45% -24.3%
20% -27.9% 30% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 80¢ 90¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $35 +$11 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$21 -82%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$12 +19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $16 −$12 -74%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$28 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$8 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $38 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 28h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 30h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $35 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.56 · official $54.06 · 48 history records