Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a66…43b2 crypto 30 markets active 6d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-7%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$8
tech 9% −$6
finance 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +13.8% +2.9% 53% 47% -11.8%
≤30d 18 +22.0% +10.4% 56% 50% -7.5%
≤90d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 53% 43% -16.6%
all 30 -4.2% -13.3% 53% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 43% -16.6%
10% -21.6% 33% -24.6%
15% -29.2% 30% -31.9%
20% -36.1% 30% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage69d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? Jun 10 $2 +$4 +204%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in May? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 03 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 03 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 7d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in May? BUY No 32¢ $2 46d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in May? BUY No 52¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY No 77¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records