Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a66…8c0c world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+9%) realized +$298 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 27L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$62
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$222
sports 23% +$46
finance 18% +$60
other 8% −$42
economics 8% −$12
tech 2% −$3
politics 0% −$8
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.2% -17.8% 62% 54% -11.0%
≤30d 22 -4.6% -13.7% 68% 45% -11.0%
≤90d 70 -1.7% -11.0% 61% 46% -1.3%
all 70 -1.7% -11.0% 61% 46% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 46% -1.3%
10% -19.5% 27% -10.7%
15% -27.3% 17% -19.4%
20% -34.4% 17% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 27
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage84d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 45¢ 45¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 91¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $111 +$23 +20%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$13 +64%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $20 −$10 -49%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -44%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $524 −$42 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 +$2 +8%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $41 +$7 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $101 +$23 +22%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? May 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 18 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 12 $20 −$11 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $20 +$5 +27%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 09 $20 −$9 -43%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 07 $10 $0 -4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 07 $10 +$2 +22%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $20 +$85 +415%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 06 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 +$6 +63%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 06 $10 −$8 -84%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $60 +$4 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 06 $20 −$11 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May? May 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $62 −$60 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 04 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 29 $10 −$7 -64%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $10 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 46¢ $103 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $101 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $11 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $10 13h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $10 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $4 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $1 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 37h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 88¢ $13 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 70¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 10¢ $10 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 65¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 19¢ $6 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 95¢ $12 5d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 6d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 79¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 32¢ $10 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 56¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.48 · official $247.48 (match) · 212 history records