Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a62…54a4 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+7%) realized +$140 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%69W / 37L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$403
other 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +9.3% -1.1% 65% 60% +2.2%
≤30d 106 +9.3% -1.1% 65% 60% +2.2%
≤90d 106 +9.3% -1.1% 65% 60% +2.2%
all 106 +9.3% -1.1% 65% 60% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 60% +2.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 54% -7.6%
15% -19.2% 42% -16.5%
20% -27.1% 32% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses69 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 66¢ 98¢ $133 $198 +$65 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $124 +$54 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $113 +$83 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $126 −$122 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $115 +$91 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $93 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $86 +$47 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $95 −$93 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $86 +$30 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $79 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $70 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $65 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$29 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $66 −$64 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $54 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $37 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $46 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$10 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$16 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$24 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $136 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $124 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $113 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $126 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $115 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $38 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $34 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.33 · official $166.11 · 203 history records