Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a62…3df0
other · 133 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$284 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$296 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,556
Realized+$296
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 42
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions65
Markets (closed)68 / 133
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day64.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 65 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days+$311
14 days+$296
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $881 $882 +$1 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $523 $523 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $143 $144 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $63 $60 −$2 (-4%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 94¢ 93¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $38 $39 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 42¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 77¢ $22 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 82¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $18 −$17 -98%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $379 +$302 +80%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $43 −$19 -44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -29%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 +$29 +992%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $49 +$35 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $271 −$207 -76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $141 −$68 -48%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $146 +$66 +45%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $131 −$23 -18%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 +$28 +586%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 −$33 -74%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +163%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -89%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $840 +$311 +37%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $16 −$12 -76%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ilkley (Doubles): Harrison/Osborne vs Kuwata/Sawangkaew Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +43%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 82% +$331
sports 14% −$45
world 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$9
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% −$11
politics 0% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 14m
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 23m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 90¢ $5 25m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 27m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 27m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 28m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 31m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 36m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 38m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 39m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 40m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $43 55m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 57m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 57m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $158 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +0.6% -8.9% 40% 34% +2.7%
≤30d 68 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 32% +2.0%
≤90d 68 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 32% +2.0%
all 68 -3.8% -13.0% 38% 32% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 32% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 26% -7.7%
15% -28.9% 22% -16.6%
20% -35.9% 15% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,555.60 · official $2,556.32 (match) · 533 history records