Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:04:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3a62…e958 world 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$740 (+54%) realized +$740 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +126% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +104% what you keep after slip
Net edge+104%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days+$953
30 days+$782
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$16
sports 15% −$209
other 12% +$962
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+104.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -15.9% -23.9% 0% 0% -20.4%
≤30d 9 +179.1% +152.5% 44% 22% +118.8%
≤90d 12 +126.0% +104.5% 42% 17% +41.3%
all 12 +126.0% +104.5% 42% 17% +41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +104.5% 17% +41.3%
10% +84.9% 8% +27.8%
15% +67.0% 8% +15.4%
20% +50.7% 8% +4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +126% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +282% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$42 · ×4.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage76d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Jun 17 $39 −$12 -32%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 11 $51 +$964 +1900%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$25 -81%
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $70 +$7 +10%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 02 $83 −$83 -100%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $79 +$10 +12%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $414 +$4 +1%
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5) Apr 09 $46 −$46 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 09 $301 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No $33 46m
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No $34 46m
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $21 6d
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? BUY Yes $18 6d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $26 13d
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? BUY Yes $25 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $28 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $28 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $28 13d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $28 13d
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? SELL Yes $6 14d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $40 17d
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) BUY Armenia $40 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $38 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $39 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $36 17d
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $34 17d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $42 21d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $25 21d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana $16 21d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $45 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL Yes $43 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $40 22d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY Yes $38 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.01 · official $66.01 (match) · 43 history records