Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a61…d2e7
crypto · 120 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses75 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 64¢ 69¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 36¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $38 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 41% -8.2%
≤30d 118 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 41% -8.2%
≤90d 118 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 41% -8.2%
all 118 +10.2% -0.3% 64% 41% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.3% 41% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.8% 25% -17.0%
15% -18.5% 15% -25.0%
20% -26.5% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.47 · official $9.22 (match) · 414 history records