Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a5c…0b0d crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$435 (-20%) realized −$216 · open −$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$184
14 days+$184
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$162
politics 22% −$381
crypto 10% −$150
sports 8% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +359.1% +315.4% 100% 100% +315.4%
≤30d 1 +359.1% +315.4% 100% 100% +315.4%
≤90d 1 +359.1% +315.4% 100% 100% +315.4%
all 12 +3.4% -6.5% 25% 25% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 25% -31.0%
10% -15.4% 25% -37.6%
15% -23.6% 25% -43.6%
20% -31.1% 25% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +359% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$38 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$1,371
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage157d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,192 $1,358 +$166 (+14%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $388 $6 −$381 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$184 +359%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 03 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 29 $10 +$52 +525%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 16? Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $235 16m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,065 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 8d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 7¢ $136 22d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $34 23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $216 23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $65 23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $159 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY Yes 39¢ $77 109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 131d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 32¢ $100 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 138d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 154d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan BUY Yes 3¢ $1 154d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? BUY No 64¢ $10 155d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,371.20 · official $1,371.20 (match) · 37 history records