Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a5b…a4d9 sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$534 (-2%) realized −$531 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%71W / 71L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$197est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$19
14 days−$203
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$55
other 33% −$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +44.6% +30.8% 64% 64% -14.4%
≤30d 30 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤90d 100 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 44% -15.9%
all 142 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 49% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 49% -12.1%
10% -20.2% 46% -20.5%
15% -27.9% 44% -28.2%
20% -35.0% 35% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$123 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses71 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$197
Open positions1
Markets (closed)142 / 143
History coverage130d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 42¢ $76 $73 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $52 +$26 +50%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $29 +$22 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$24 +388%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $55 −$49 -89%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$24 +79%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $16 +$19 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$8 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $59 −$50 -86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$22 +60%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$8 +41%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $91 −$72 -79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $150 −$50 -33%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $133 +$119 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 +$38 +76%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $31 +$12 +38%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 27 $111 −$79 -71%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5 May 26 $386 −$359 -93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $342 +$163 +48%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $122 −$110 -90%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $242 +$144 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $101 −$54 -54%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $98 +$78 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $99 −$86 -86%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 15 $96 −$95 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 12 $81 −$68 -84%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $217 −$135 -62%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 11 $115 +$102 +89%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $61 +$52 +86%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 09 $99 −$36 -37%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 09 $172 −$167 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $85 +$86 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $353 −$95 -27%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $399 −$218 -55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $655 −$647 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $272 −$113 -41%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $315 +$305 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $77 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $77 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $52 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $29 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany $6 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $55 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $30 43h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $30 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $35 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $16 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $8 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $8 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $59 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $36 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $25 7d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 70¢ $19 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $91 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 42¢ $100 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $150 8d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 44¢ $102 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 52¢ $133 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 67¢ $88 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $44 23d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Thunder 72¢ $31 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 SELL Under 15¢ $32 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 50¢ $111 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.38 · official $75.11 · 298 history records