Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a5a…b259 politics 87 markets active 2d ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$4
other 32% −$6
sports 21% −$3
economics 6% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.2% -19.7% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 9 -4.6% -13.7% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -4.1% -13.3% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 82 -6.2% -15.1% 5% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 1% -9.7%
10% -23.3% 1% -18.3%
15% -30.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -37.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 78
Open positions5
Markets (closed)82 / 87
History coverage391d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2 $0 -18%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 31 $208 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $67 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 01 $1 $0 -50%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 28 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $57 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $63 41h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 41h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $61 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $62 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 13d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 16d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 18d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 19d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.84 · official $67.84 (match) · 427 history records