Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3A 0x3a59…c2b6 other 642 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,987 (+5%) realized +$1,966 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%539W / 69L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$47
14 days+$32
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$713
culture 40% +$663
politics 5% +$23
world 1% +$6
sports 1% +$143
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.8% -5.2% 85% 5% -11.6%
≤30d 168 +10.0% -0.5% 90% 10% -7.3%
≤90d 486 +14.7% +3.8% 89% 14% -7.0%
all 608 +14.6% +3.7% 89% 17% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 17% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.2% 12% -15.0%
15% -15.3% 7% -23.2%
20% -23.6% 5% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$1,262
Realized+$1,966
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses539 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions34
Markets (closed)608 / 642
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $198 $203 +$4 (+2%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be between 85 and 90? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $143 $153 +$10 (+7%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 84¢ 85¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $105 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ed Sheeran be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2026? No 91¢ 89¢ $75 $73 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? No 86¢ 88¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $52 $62 +$10 (+20%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be between 80 and 85? No 99¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Will Eminem be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 99¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be between 95 and 100? No 98¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 97¢ 95¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 75¢ 98¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+31%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 86¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in June? No 91¢ 94¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Will Billie Eilish be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 92¢ 99¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 87¢ $15 $17 +$3 (+18%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 57¢ 28¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be at least 100? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? Yes 66¢ 75¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in June? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +4%
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top US Netflix movie this w Jun 16 $83 +$7 +9%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $36 +$1 +3%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $63 +$2 +2%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $75 +$2 +3%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will "Piece by Piece" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $65 +$2 +2%
Will "David" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $74 +$1 +2%
Will "Poor Things" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will "Come Over - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 16 $24 +$1 +2%
Will "Beauty And A Beat - Justin Bieber" be the #1 song on Spotify thi Jun 16 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Raw (June 8, 2026)" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be less Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will "Lawmen: Bass Reeves" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 13 $140 −$27 -19%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $67 +$62 +92%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $234 +$6 +2%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $69 $0 +1%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will "Billie Jean - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this we Jun 12 $27 −$2 -6%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify Jun 12 $79 −$2 -3%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $144 −$121 -84%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 22 be betwe Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 12 $6 +$15 +250%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $120 −$12 -10%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 11 $103 +$7 +6%
Will "David" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "A Perfect Getaway" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $116 +$1 +1%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $254 +$2 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will "The Crash" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $130 +$3 +2%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the #2 global Netflix movie thi Jun 09 $67 +$3 +4%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $20 2h
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this BUY No 99¢ $19 2h
Will "Bee Movie" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 98¢ $0 2h
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 86¢ $61 3h
Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 97¢ $31 9h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 85¢ $3 9h
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 85¢ $6 21h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL No 94¢ $36 24h
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $13 33h
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? SELL No 100¢ $12 33h
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? SELL No 100¢ $12 33h
Will "Come Over - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? SELL No 100¢ $20 33h
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee SELL No 100¢ $20 33h
Will "Beauty And A Beat - Justin Bieber" be the #1 song on Spotify thi SELL No 100¢ $17 33h
Will "Hit The Wall - Gracie Abrams" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee SELL No 100¢ $5 33h
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $50 35h
Will "GOAT" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $27 41h
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? SELL No 100¢ $19 46h
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $7 2d
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will "Beat It - Michael Jackson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be betwe SELL No 100¢ $2 2d
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 92¢ $13 2d
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 92¢ $5 2d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 90¢ $18 2d
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $1 2d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 88¢ $25 3d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL No 88¢ $10 3d
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,262.17 · official $1,261.70 (match) · 3500 history records