Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a58…40dc sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$18 (+27%) realized +$20 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$29
sports 29% −$9
crypto 10% −$3
world 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.6% -26.3% 25% 17% +52.7%
≤30d 12 -18.6% -26.3% 25% 17% +52.7%
≤90d 22 -28.8% -35.6% 36% 18% +19.6%
all 22 -28.8% -35.6% 36% 18% +19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 18% +19.6%
10% -41.8% 14% +8.1%
15% -47.4% 14% -2.3%
20% -52.6% 14% -11.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$46 +372%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $2 +$1 +52%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 19 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 15m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 24m
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 39m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes $1 39m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 54m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 23h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 36h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 45h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 4d
Spurs vs. Clippers SELL Spurs 100¢ $3 73d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 73d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 24¢ $2 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.42 · official $11.42 (match) · 43 history records