Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a56…80ba crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$246 (+30%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day97.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$317
other 8% +$59
sports 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +34.3% +21.5% 45% 45% +36.1%
≤30d 56 +34.3% +21.5% 45% 45% +36.1%
≤90d 56 +34.3% +21.5% 45% 45% +36.1%
all 56 +34.3% +21.5% 45% 45% +36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.5% 45% +36.1%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 43% +23.0%
15% -0.7% 43% +11.2%
20% -10.5% 38% +0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day97.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $53 +$93 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$89 +421%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$68 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$52 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$21 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$47 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$9 +17%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $15 +$7 +42%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$8 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$11 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$51 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$23 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$35 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$5 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$11 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$13 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $61 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $69 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records