Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3a56…ba60 weather 632 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,730 (+5%) realized +$1,729 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%470W / 158L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$73
14 days+$156
30 days+$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$997
finance 2% −$8
other 1% +$3
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +60.0% +44.8% 75% 33% -4.6%
≤30d 216 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 23% -6.8%
≤90d 628 +20.1% +8.7% 75% 27% -6.8%
all 628 +20.1% +8.7% 75% 27% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 27% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 18% -15.7%
15% -11.2% 14% -23.9%
20% -19.9% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$1,729
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses470 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)628 / 632
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 93¢ 95¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? No 94¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $76 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 16 $88 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 +$7 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $4 +$5 +127%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 15 $99 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 14 $62 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $350 +$27 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 +$1 +297%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +402%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 +$10 +174%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $23 −$3 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $152 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -52%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 09 $311 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $192 −$9 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 09 $1 −$1 -47%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 08 $1 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 08 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 08 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 08 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 8? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $29 +$12 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $62 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $0 $0 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 05 $1,188 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 05 $1,155 +$8 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $47 45m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $17 46m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 90¢ $4 46m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $50 46m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 47m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 94¢ $12 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 94¢ $15 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $40 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $27 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $16 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 18? SELL No 96¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.50 · official $61.52 (match) · 3500 history records