Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a51…b2b6 sports 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48,919 (+11%) realized +$48,560 · open +$359
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%225W / 434L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$994per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$7,330est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,290
7 days−$8,108
14 days−$8,893
30 days+$8,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$48,712
other 1% +$128
world 0% −$1,079
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -70.4% -73.2% 9% 9% -37.9%
≤30d 283 -58.0% -62.0% 16% 15% -2.9%
≤90d 659 -25.9% -33.0% 34% 33% -1.0%
all 659 -25.9% -33.0% 34% 33% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.0% 33% -1.0%
10% -39.4% 32% -10.5%
15% ← realistic here -45.2% 31% -19.1%
20% -50.6% 30% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$958 vs −$405 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$2,602
Realized+$48,560
Unrealized+$359
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses225 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$7,330
Open positions6
Markets (closed)659 / 454
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$994
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 659 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 71¢ $520 $710 +$190 (+37%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 68¢ $550 $675 +$125 (+23%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 59¢ $540 $590 +$50 (+9%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $410 $415 +$5 (+1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 22¢ 21¢ $220 $210 −$10 (-5%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Devin Booker: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bruins vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-18.5) Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Jazz vs. Suns: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5 Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams: O/U 138.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-03-17? Jun 17 $93 −$93 -100%
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5 Jun 17 $83 −$87 -105%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$28 -253%
LoL: Verdant vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-6.5) Jun 17 $18 −$14 -79%
Islanders vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-9.5) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Kraken vs. Panthers Jun 17 $0 +$1 +560%
Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
76ers vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Josh Hart: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bucks vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Ducks vs. Utah Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Heat (-8.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Warriors: O/U 216.5 Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: California Golden Bears (-6.5) Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Caris LeVert: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Spurs vs. Bucks: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Jalen Johnson: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Zion Williamson: Points O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $557 37m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $527 38m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 52m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $90 52m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $62 53m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $68 55m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 56m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $69 56m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 57m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $47 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $225 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $137 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $411 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $38 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $12 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $38 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $115 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $577 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $386 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $19 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $408 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $209 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,601.56 · official $2,601.56 (match) · 3500 history records