Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a50…eb39 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 28% −$2
politics 10% +$5
sports 8% −$4
crypto 8% +$1
economics 3% +$1
tech 3% +$1
weather 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 -1.6% -10.9% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 -2.3% -11.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 54 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage479d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 87¢ 87¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $19 −$1 -5%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $31 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -25%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $3 −$1 -23%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 24 $13 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 08 $14 −$1 -4%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 07 $17 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $16 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 31 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 19 $5 $0 +4%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $49 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $47 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $19 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $47 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $47 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $23 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $48 30d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 30d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $33 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $9 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $2 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.50 · official $43.50 (match) · 163 history records