Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a50…95e7
crypto · 894 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$153 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$400
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses348 / 543
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)891 / 894
History coverage227d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 891 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 72¢ 28¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 13 $400 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -35%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? Jun 09 $120 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $110 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $40 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +23%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $200 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$148
other 2% −$15
economics 1% −$3
world 0% +$15
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? SELL No 100¢ $149 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $104 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $200 4d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? SELL No 99¢ $119 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $150 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.3% -24.3% 40% 10% -10.3%
≤30d 215 -15.0% -23.1% 42% 30% -10.3%
≤90d 840 -13.8% -22.0% 38% 33% -10.6%
all 891 -13.3% -21.6% 39% 31% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 31% -10.5%
10% -29.1% 28% -19.1%
15% -35.9% 24% -26.9%
20% -42.2% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.04 · official $400.04 (match) · 2180 history records