Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a4f…829e other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 389d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$596 (+3%) realized +$629 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%55W / 51L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$725
7 days−$1,104
14 days−$577
30 days−$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$970
sports 29% −$285
politics 17% −$1,032
crypto 11% −$358
world 8% +$777
tech 1% −$183
economics 0% +$32
culture 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -41.1% -46.8% 32% 27% -31.1%
≤30d 28 -22.8% -30.1% 43% 39% -12.8%
≤90d 40 -35.3% -41.5% 38% 32% -22.9%
all 106 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 44% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -9.9%
10% -23.6% 38% -18.6%
15% -31.0% 33% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 26% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$127 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

389d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized+$629
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses55 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)106 / 113
History coverage389d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 61¢ 100¢ $200 $327 +$127 (+64%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $178 $101 −$77 (-43%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $63 $56 −$6 (-10%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 47¢ 18¢ $141 $56 −$85 (-61%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 51¢ $52 $51 −$1 (-3%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 58¢ 99¢ $29 $49 +$20 (+70%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $15 $6 −$10 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $502 −$502 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $166 −$163 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $192 −$150 -78%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $18 +$28 +153%
Spread: Japan (-4.5) Jun 21 $925 +$75 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $162 −$161 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $369 +$253 +68%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%? Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Jun 19 $79 −$79 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $122 −$122 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31? Jun 19 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Jun 19 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $141 +$159 +113%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $594 +$855 +144%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$42 +42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $52 −$45 -87%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $54 +$46 +85%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$484 +158%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $753 +$151 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $396 +$196 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 01 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 01 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 01 $5 +$5 +89%
Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? Apr 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
League of Legends: T1 vs. Hanwha Life Esports Apr 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Apr 22 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 22 $57 −$57 -100%
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. BNK FEARX Apr 22 $145 −$145 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 22 $230 −$230 -100%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $395 +$105 +27%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $171 +$129 +75%
Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album by February 28? Mar 01 $4 +$1 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? Feb 19 $123 +$14 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $160 +$46 +29%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Jan 06 $8 +$12 +156%
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Jan 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 53m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 50¢ $67 54m
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 54m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $502 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $192 2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 29h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Tunisia 92¢ $925 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 78¢ $79 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $68 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 59¢ $92 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 59¢ $277 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $65 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 44¢ $355 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $75 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 35¢ $74 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 25¢ $197 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.47 · official $645.48 (match) · 447 history records