Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a4f…c4f2 sports 1043 markets active 0h ago coverage 296d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 296d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,546 (-8%) realized −$2,408 · open −$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%477W / 552L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$355now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$449
14 days−$449
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$2,158
crypto 29% −$882
other 16% +$449
world 1% +$175
politics 1% +$27
culture 1% −$69
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -30.4% -37.0% 35% 31% -25.0%
≤30d 68 -23.8% -31.0% 37% 32% -24.9%
≤90d 69 -24.9% -32.0% 36% 32% -25.4%
all 1029 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 46% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 46% -16.1%
10% -24.6% 44% -24.2%
15% -31.9% 41% -31.5%
20% -38.5% 35% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$26 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$355
Realized−$2,408
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses477 / 552
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1029 / 1043
History coverage296d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 64¢ $61 $64 +$3 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $48 $59 +$11 (+23%)
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Felix Balshaw 49¢ 44¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 10¢ $52 $42 −$10 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Luciano Darderi 37¢ 36¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $34 $6 −$28 (-83%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Juan Manuel Cerundolo 40¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 43¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $72 −$4 -6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $51 −$31 -62%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $77 +$53 +68%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao Jun 25 $28 −$3 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$65 +186%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $38 +$26 +68%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $14 −$13 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 24 $32 −$20 -63%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $25 +$37 +148%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $38 +$24 +63%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $108 +$6 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Targu Mures: Benjamin Hassan vs Sumit Nagal Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic Jun 24 $42 −$29 -69%
ITF Kamen: Louis Wessels vs Leonid Sheyngezikht Jun 24 $7 +$6 +89%
ITF Rzeszow: Oskar Grzegorzewski vs Marcel Kamrowski Jun 24 $52 −$2 -5%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $52 −$52 -100%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 24 $53 −$52 -99%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Cezar Cretu Jun 24 $54 +$37 +68%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Jing-Jing Lu vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 24 $57 +$43 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$22 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$27 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $65 +$74 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $93 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $19 −$18 -94%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$50 +100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 23 $42 +$45 +108%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan Jun 23 $49 +$41 +85%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $62 +$33 +53%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $53 +$47 +89%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $73 +$100 +136%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $68 2m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Luciano Darderi 37¢ $24 12m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich BUY Felix Balshaw 49¢ $50 18m
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich BUY Felix Balshaw 45¢ $2 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 20¢ $20 20m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn BUY Christopher OConnell 43¢ $44 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Ethan Quinn 68¢ $67 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 31¢ $11 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Ethan Quinn 40¢ $41 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 60¢ $2 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 43¢ $0 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 43¢ $43 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 50¢ $51 1h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 63¢ $56 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 65¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 65¢ $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva SELL Vit Kopriva 65¢ $2 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 36¢ $22 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 36¢ $15 2h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 6¢ $0 4h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 6¢ $4 4h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 6¢ $2 4h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao SELL Erika Sema 50¢ $25 4h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 44¢ $11 5h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 44¢ $3 5h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Chia Yi Tsao BUY Erika Sema 44¢ $8 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 16h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 64¢ $63 16h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 16h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.67 · official $345.12 · 3500 history records