Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3A 0x3a4e…cb3f other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$4
sports 29% $0
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 38% +4.9%
≤30d 27 -20.0% -27.6% 37% 33% -9.0%
≤90d 29 -20.7% -28.2% 38% 34% -6.6%
all 40 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 38% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 38% -8.3%
10% -33.7% 32% -17.1%
15% -40.1% 28% -25.1%
20% -46.0% 18% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage226d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 82¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 +$5 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $13 +$5 +37%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6 +$1 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 $0 -3%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in May 30 $1 +$3 +262%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $5 $0 -5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $10 +$5 +50%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 26 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$3 +151%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +34%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $9 +$4 +42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 21 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $7 −$4 -66%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $4 +$3 +59%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05? Jan 31 $1 $0 +32%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 31 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Nigeria vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jan 05 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $1 +$1 +148%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $11 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 35h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 35h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 36h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 4d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 9d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 11d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 15d
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 15d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in SELL Yes 100¢ $4 16d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $5 16d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa end in BUY Yes 27¢ $1 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 16d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.06 · official $10.06 (match) · 75 history records