Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a4c…ad2f
sports · 1394 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,459 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,727 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$747
Realized−$2,727
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses887 / 497
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1384 / 1394
History coverage63d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 10 History 1384 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$1,074
14 days+$1,362
30 days−$972
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 97¢ 99¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 98¢ 98¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 98¢ 99¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-05-14? Yes 59¢ 30¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 67¢ 56¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card) Daniel Santos 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: KRÜ Spark (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) Leeds United FC 74¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on May 26? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-16? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
ITF Changwon: Eun Ji Lee vs Kseniya Yersh Kseniya Yersh 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION Challengers 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A MOUZ 72¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Cavaliers 49¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $228 −$225 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $78 +$2 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $307 +$455 +148%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,006 +$156 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $95 +$7 +7%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $403 +$104 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $63 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +1%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $401 +$43 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +2%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $302 +$109 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,821 +$470 +26%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $99 +$6 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $1,006 +$260 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $59 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $67 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be greater than $170M at marke Jun 01 $57 +$2 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $29 +$11 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 29 $10 +$5 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $100 +$9 +9%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 40% −$1,147
other 27% +$490
crypto 14% −$1,003
weather 6% −$93
finance 5% −$1,013
world 3% −$47
politics 3% −$7
culture 1% +$25
tech 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $100 40m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $100 2h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 98¢ $46 6h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 98¢ $100 25h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 98¢ $100 26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 96¢ $100 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $100 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 2d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 69¢ $228 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 98¢ $78 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $1,003 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 3d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 39¢ $307 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 98¢ $100 3d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 98¢ $100 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 98¢ $100 3d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 93¢ $95 3d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 98¢ $100 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 86¢ $603 4d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 86¢ $402 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky BUY Atlanta Dream 79¢ $403 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 97¢ $97 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +4.1% -5.8% 94% 22% +2.9%
≤30d 1128 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 44% -11.3%
≤90d 1384 -4.8% -13.9% 64% 44% -13.9%
all 1384 -4.8% -13.9% 64% 44% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 44% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 38% -22.2%
15% -29.6% 32% -29.7%
20% -36.5% 25% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.11 · official $746.47 (match) · 3500 history records