Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a4c…3f0d world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%26W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$18
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$17
politics 15% −$1
other 11% $0
sports 5% −$15
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.9% -4.2% 45% 9% -8.1%
≤30d 28 +74.3% +57.7% 39% 7% -8.3%
≤90d 73 +27.9% +15.8% 29% 3% -9.0%
all 83 +21.0% +9.5% 31% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -1.0% 4% -18.2%
15% -10.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -19.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses26 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage538d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $35 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $78 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $46 +$2 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +68%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $140 +$8 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $25 +$2 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $88 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $57 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $32 +$2 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $59 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $29 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $24 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $2 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $35 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $35 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $5 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $5 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $48 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $46 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.50 · official $43.48 · 370 history records