trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 40% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 31% | 8% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 31% | 8% | -7.5% |
| all | 21 | +6.8% | -3.4% | 48% | 10% | -7.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.4% | 10% | -7.3% |
| 10% | -12.6% | 10% | -16.2% |
| 15% | -21.1% | 5% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -28.8% | 5% | -31.7% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 19 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $10 | +$10 | +102% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 07 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 06 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $82 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 05 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 02 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 14 | $9 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 15 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | May 07 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | May 07 | $7 | +$2 | +29% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? | Mar 28 | $12 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 16? | Mar 18 | $11 | $0 | +2% |