Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a40…c051 world 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%28W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 24% +$2
politics 19% −$4
sports 8% $0
crypto 6% −$4
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.6% -8.0% 22% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 27% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 64 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 2% -9.6%
all 92 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage470d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $8 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $71 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $138 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $4 $0 -14%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 23 $9 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $125 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +7%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 39m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 39m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $7 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $7 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $41 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $41 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $13 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $35 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $39 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records