Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3a3b…9f0d world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%30W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$13
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$7
other 17% +$1
politics 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% +$8
sports 0% −$8
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.7% -7.0% 67% 11% -8.2%
≤30d 27 +2.6% -7.2% 44% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 31 +2.3% -7.5% 39% 10% -9.5%
all 68 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 4% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 4% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses30 / 38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage476d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $115 $114 −$1 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $184 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $305 −$3 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $442 +$2 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $165 +$17 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $67 +$3 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $164 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +11%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $159 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $162 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $3 $0 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $162 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2,680 −$9 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $204 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $173 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $372 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $414 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $471 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $408 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $277 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $180 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $3 $0 +16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $230 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $34 −$4 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $158 −$2 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $149 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $66 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,900 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $1,088 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $8 +$5 +64%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Nov 20 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -65%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Oct 08 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $115 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $12 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $9 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $162 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $80 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $87 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $184 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $184 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $82 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $78 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 100¢ $185 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $103 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $57 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $83 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $176 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $183 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $73 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.12 · official $114.39 (match) · 292 history records