Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a38…9ffc sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$171 (-24%) realized −$184 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$81
14 days−$97
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$35
finance 18% −$63
crypto 15% −$24
other 12% −$41
tech 3% −$20
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -5.5% -14.5% 27% 27% -41.0%
≤30d 100 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 35% -36.2%
≤90d 100 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 35% -36.2%
all 100 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 35% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 35% -36.2%
10% -22.3% 33% -42.3%
15% -29.8% 30% -47.9%
20% -36.7% 29% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)100 / 110
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $3 $20 +$17 (+547%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 42¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+177%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 15¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$7 +245%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $16 −$15 -89%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +596%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +567%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $14 +$16 +110%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +223%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$6 +146%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$9 +164%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $7 +$1 +13%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $8 +$12 +163%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $9 −$9 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $4 +$6 +140%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $4 +$6 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 15¢ $3 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 35m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $2 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 40¢ $8 3h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 29¢ $3 16h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $3 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $5 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $3 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $4 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.42 · official $46.32 (match) · 239 history records