Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a37…3b1d
crypto · 430 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$531 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$451 · open −$80
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$406
Realized−$451
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses224 / 317
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)541 / 430
History coverage3d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day999.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 541 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,010
7 days−$451
14 days−$451
30 days−$451
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Down 48¢ 72¢ $216 $325 +$109 (+50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Up 66¢ 28¢ $117 $49 −$68 (-58%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Up 77¢ 52¢ $37 $25 −$12 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Down 45¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 7, 3PM ET? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 11AM ET? No 35¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+186%)
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 10, 5AM ET? No 20¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+400%)
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 7AM ET? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 12, 3AM ET? No 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 11, 10AM ET? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 8, 2PM ET? No 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 7, 11AM ET? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 7, 5PM ET? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 8, 4PM ET? No 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 10AM ET? No 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 12, 10AM ET? No 16¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 6, 8PM ET? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 8, 4AM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 9, 2PM ET? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 8, 11AM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 7, 10PM ET? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 6, 3AM ET? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 11AM ET? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 12, 9AM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 9, 3PM ET? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 7, 3PM ET? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 8, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 7, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 7, 5PM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 8, 4PM ET? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 6, 8PM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 8, 4AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 8, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 7, 10PM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 6, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 7, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 9, 4AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 9, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 9, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 8, 12PM ET? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 8, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 8, 9PM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 8, 6AM ET? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 8, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 9, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 8, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 9, 7AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 9, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 8, 8AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 9, 12PM ET? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 6, 10PM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 9, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 8, 12PM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 7, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 8, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 8, 10PM ET? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 8, 9AM ET? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 7, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 9, 4AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 7, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum above 1,580 on June 6, 11PM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 8, 8AM ET? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 9, 5AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 7, 3AM ET? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 8, 12AM ET? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $18 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $14 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 541 -28.4% -35.2% 41% 31% -11.2%
≤30d 541 -28.4% -35.2% 41% 31% -11.2%
≤90d 541 -28.4% -35.2% 41% 31% -11.2%
all 541 -28.4% -35.2% 41% 31% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover999.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 31% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 18% -19.7%
15% -47.1% 12% -27.4%
20% -52.3% 9% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.38 · official $403.69 (match) · 3500 history records