Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a37…6830 other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$4
other 27% +$3
politics 19% −$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +4.3% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 68 +2.0% -7.7% 47% 4% -9.4%
all 73 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage94d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 94¢ 83¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $13 $0 +4%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 20 $28 −$3 -9%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +3%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $19 $0 +1%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 12 $239 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $6 $0 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $8 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $145 −$4 -3%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 10 $578 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $90 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $48 −$1 -3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 07 $89 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $41 $0 +1%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 30 $2 $0 -14%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $2 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026? Apr 28 $4 $0 -13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $48 $0 +1%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $101 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $48 $0 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? Apr 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? Apr 18 $96 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $48 $0 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Apr 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 05 $47 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 94¢ $12 14d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 94¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $13 20d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $21 27d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 27d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY No 92¢ $10 28d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY Yes 97¢ $11 31d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $4 33d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 34d
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 39d
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $17 39d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $8 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 40d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL Yes $2 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? SELL Yes $7 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes $1 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes $3 40d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY Yes $4 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 97¢ $18 41d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $18 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 41d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 42d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.94 · official $42.94 (match) · 271 history records