Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3A 0x3a35…4f28 crypto 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,277 (+36%) realized +$10,277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 80L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$2,329
14 days+$10,223
30 days+$10,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$11,553
finance 23% −$2,938
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -75.6% -77.9% 0% 0% -71.8%
≤30d 34 +55.3% +40.5% 24% 24% +25.9%
≤90d 92 -9.1% -17.7% 13% 11% +19.1%
all 92 -9.1% -17.7% 13% 11% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 11% +19.1%
10% -25.6% 11% +7.7%
15% -32.8% 10% -2.7%
20% -39.4% 10% -12.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -49% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,779 vs −$159 · ×11.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$10,277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage80d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $69 −$66 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $230 −$186 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$44 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $259 −$244 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,404 −$553 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $741 −$634 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $637 −$601 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $264 −$160 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 06 $3,920 −$1,443 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,697 −$1,050 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $314 −$258 -82%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,431 +$3,480 +243%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,003 +$6,954 +347%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1,101 −$1,032 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 04 $1,036 −$586 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 04 $1,553 −$909 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,624 −$1,432 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,455 +$369 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $904 +$3,078 +341%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $416 −$400 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $767 +$1,679 +219%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $128 +$3,582 +2789%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $154 +$372 +241%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $101 +$311 +308%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $12 −$10 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $16 −$4 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $7 −$6 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $20 −$13 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 24 $52 −$32 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $15 −$7 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 21 $34 −$19 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 08 $6 −$2 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $21 −$14 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 04 $37 −$20 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? May 04 $11 −$2 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 01 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 01 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 01 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $12 −$8 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $13 −$11 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $6 −$2 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $16 −$9 -59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $60 −$13 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL No 6¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 7¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $1 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $68 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL No 2¢ $44 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 9¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY No 9¢ $130 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL No 0¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 11¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY No 11¢ $255 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 2¢ $41 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 1¢ $38 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 9¢ $177 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL No 1¢ $43 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL No 1¢ $64 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 7¢ $63 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 20¢ $133 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 7¢ $171 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 7¢ $426 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 6¢ $81 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 22¢ $680 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 12¢ $60 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 13¢ $1,167 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL No 3¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 4¢ $12 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL No 1¢ $36 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY No 13¢ $362 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY No 11¢ $212 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.11 · official $2.12 (match) · 343 history records