Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a34…a261 politics 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%21W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$11
other 23% −$7
sports 21% −$1
crypto 9% −$2
economics 7% $0
world 4% $0
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 92 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 204 -0.3% -9.8% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses21 / 183
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)204 / 205
History coverage162d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $27 $0 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $10 $0 -5%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $125 −$2 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $19 $0 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $154 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 26 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $88 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 24 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 22 $32 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $119 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $270 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 20 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? May 19 $37 $0 -1%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $67 $0 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $182 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $26 $0 -0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 14 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 10d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $14 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 11d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $26 23d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $27 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? SELL No 93¢ $9 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY No 98¢ $10 23d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $28 23d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $28 24d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $27 24d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $27 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $23 24d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $23 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $21 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $21 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 25d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 25d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $27 25d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $27 25d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 90¢ $19 25d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 91¢ $19 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $24 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 26d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $21 26d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $21 26d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $24 26d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $24 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $26 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.89 · official $27.89 (match) · 846 history records