Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a31…5972
crypto · 71 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$100 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$100 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage3d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 0 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$100
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $10 $0 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $306 +$131 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $407 −$300 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $409 −$300 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$32 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$45 +433%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $625 −$533 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $904 −$904 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $205 +$104 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $302 +$26 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $305 +$107 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$62 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $528 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $152 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $405 +$87 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $403 +$48 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $505 +$93 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $203 +$58 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $301 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $301 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$5
other 5% +$116
sports 0% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 47m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 47m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 47m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 47m
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $10 48m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $10 48m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 48m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 48m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 48m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 48m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $28 48m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
≤30d 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
≤90d 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
all 71 +6.8% -3.4% 61% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 48% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 28% -17.7%
15% -21.1% 17% -25.6%
20% -28.8% 10% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records