Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a2e…e1b2
sports · 145 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$2,037 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,749 · open +$768
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,485
Realized−$2,749
Unrealized+$768
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses74 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions7
Markets (closed)138 / 145
History coverage180d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 7 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$849
7 days−$6,955
14 days−$6,346
30 days−$4,500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 98¢ $7,944 $8,740 +$795 (+10%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $233 $207 −$26 (-11%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$17 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $402 −$402 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$49 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $704 −$74 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9,232 +$1,288 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $603 +$102 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$33 +32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $4,000 +$398 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $285 +$82 +29%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $101 +$38 +37%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 11 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $92 +$74 +80%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,002 +$86 +9%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $40 +$11 +28%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $351 −$351 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $202 +$122 +60%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $301 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$28 +109%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $201 +$47 +24%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $201 +$19 +9%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $501 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $101 +$55 +55%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $302 +$74 +24%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $503 +$99 +20%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $152 +$99 +65%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $202 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 47% +$4,650
sports 35% −$3,732
other 9% +$191
politics 5% −$1,341
crypto 3% −$1,321
culture 1% −$398
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $202 59m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 59m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY Donstu Esports 20¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $617 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $41 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $402 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 29¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 81¢ $503 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 82¢ $201 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,579 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -45.2% -50.4% 36% 31% -27.4%
≤30d 116 -25.7% -32.8% 48% 43% -18.9%
≤90d 117 -25.5% -32.6% 49% 43% -18.6%
all 138 -13.9% -22.1% 54% 46% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 46% -13.9%
10% -29.6% 37% -22.1%
15% -36.4% 27% -29.6%
20% -42.6% 23% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,484.88 · official $9,484.88 (match) · 475 history records