Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a2d…c880 world 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$917 (+3%) realized +$959 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate64%88W / 49L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days+$98
14 days+$250
30 days+$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$68
sports 26% +$337
other 22% +$8
politics 10% +$417
economics 3% +$67
weather 1% −$23
crypto 0% −$78
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +68.0% +52.0% 79% 32% -8.2%
≤30d 47 +42.8% +29.2% 79% 30% -7.1%
≤90d 105 +11.5% +0.8% 69% 30% -6.0%
all 137 +4.9% -5.1% 64% 31% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 31% -6.8%
10% -14.2% 18% -15.7%
15% -22.5% 12% -23.8%
20% -30.1% 6% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$22 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1,903
Realized+$959
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses88 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions5
Markets (closed)137 / 142
History coverage482d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $878 $841 −$38 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $800 $821 +$21 (+3%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $250 $233 −$17 (-7%)
Something to have the most kills Yes 69¢ 40¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-42%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 6¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $490 +$7 +1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $480 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,150 −$134 -12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 +$18 +12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $40 +$1 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 +$10 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $362 +$153 +42%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $539 +$29 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +21%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $570 +$11 +2%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 14 $49 −$6 -12%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $720 +$49 +7%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$9 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$19 +37%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $603 +$31 +5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $367 +$13 +4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $151 +$28 +19%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 12 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$24 +118%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $403 +$10 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $983 +$89 +9%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 08 $9 +$2 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $788 +$29 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $502 +$16 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $274 +$13 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $143 −$2 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $78 −$7 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $962 −$42 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $171 +$13 +8%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? May 24 $596 +$62 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $40 +$25 +64%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $757 +$52 +7%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 23 $329 +$21 +6%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 22 $43 +$15 +35%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $41 +$4 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $54 +$12 +22%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $1,334 +$21 +2%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $446 −$24 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 15 $302 +$25 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $90 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $180 4h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 96¢ $100 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 78¢ $50 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 68¢ $9 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 68¢ $20 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 68¢ $4 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 68¢ $9 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $10 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $30 15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $160 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $50 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 91¢ $100 16h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 20h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 28h
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $121 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,903.11 · official $1,903.11 (match) · 693 history records