Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a2c…b7f7 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$48 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%8W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$59
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$71
weather 7% −$14
sports 6% +$28
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -15.4% -23.5% 25% 25% -29.6%
≤30d 29 -11.0% -19.5% 28% 28% -17.4%
≤90d 29 -11.0% -19.5% 28% 28% -17.4%
all 29 -11.0% -19.5% 28% 28% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 28% -17.4%
10% -27.2% 17% -25.3%
15% -34.2% 10% -32.5%
20% -40.7% 10% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$905
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses8 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $263 $261 −$3 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $191 $194 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $141 $140 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $101 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +144%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $56 −$42 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$27 +89%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $103 41m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $57 42m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 58m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 59m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $98 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $118 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $207 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $67 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $16 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 24h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 34h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $904.95 · official $904.95 (match) · 118 history records