Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a29…7e49 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 22% −$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -0.4% -9.9% 48% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage471d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $56 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $28 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $27 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Germany before July? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 305–319 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $7 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bybit buy >$1b ETH by next Friday? May 09 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $5 $0 -3%
Boise State vs. Air Force Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 10h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $17 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $11 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $28 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $31 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $31 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $29 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $6 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $22 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $20 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $20 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $8 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records